At DUAGA our highest purpose is to be the strategic and reliable ally when it comes to projecting market behavior. Therefore, we have developed a new model for carrying out market studies to have greater precision when projecting the expected demand from port terminals.
Our new model, corrects the lack of precision and methodological formality of traditional projection models. The DUAGA projection model brings together the most advanced features of mathematics, statistics and econometrics in a single model with a robust and professional methodology that allows us to offer our clients a predictive model capable of understanding the historical behaviour of the Port / Company , but more importantly, predict the future behaviour of the cargo or variable to be projected with a degree of precision and statistical support greater than any other model in the market.
For what it is use it:
Projections of specific variables
Continuous prediction of the behavior of the economy
Our methodology allows to predict with greater precision the future behaviour of the cargo, the macroeconomic components of the country, the regional results, as well as assigning the probability of occurrence of each of the scenarios modeled so that the client has a greater degree of certainty and control when making new investments.
How do we do it:
DUAGA developed a model that not only includes the historical results, but also projects the macroeconomic behaviour of a country or region, makes comparisons with national and international pairs, creates simulations of results, assigns probabilities of occurrence and projects with a high degree of reliability, the possible behaviour of the market. DUAGA delivers to its clients the results of the High, Base and Low scenarios with a real probabilistic calculation of occurrence, and also generates results according to the individual annual probability, in order to understand the future behaviour of the cargo. This allows us, as mentioned above, to have a greater degree of certainty and control when making new investments.
* Individual projects
* MPaaS (Market Projection as a Service)
What makes us different:
We do not use the traditional and imprecise model of cargo forecast
We generate multiple possible outcomes scenarios and calculate their probability of occurrence with a true reliable methodology
We do not deliver results based only on “experience”, but we include innovative and formal methods of projection
We understand the particular needs of our client and we take into account the specific realities of the port / company at the time of elaborating the projection model
We do not use the same template for all our clients. DUAGA develops custom calculations and sub models for each of our clients using a robust and reliable methodology.
MPaaS (Market Projection as a Service)
What is it:
For DUAGA, the uncertainty of the future comes from the lack of permanent monitoring. Therefore, DUAGA offers a continuous forecast service in an annual service that allows to anticipate the behaviour of the markets and include the possible economic shocks that generate a deviation to traditional market models, which are normally updated every 3 or 4 years. Our annual market projection service avoids spending large sums of money every 3 or 4 years, allows a constant prediction and greater precision of the results at a fraction of the price of a market study. This allows companies to be constantly prepared and minimize the need to improvise upon unexpected events.
How does it work:
The annual Market Projection Service integrates all annual economic shocks, dynamic market changes, the impact of new competitors, the results of new investments and generates updated and accurate information on the possible future of the market. This allows the director of planning and strategy to anticipate important changes, the financial director to project a coherent budget, the infrastructure director to plan the necessary new works and the commercial director, to define the most effective sources of cargo where they should concentrate their efforts to improve the results of the port each year.
What makes us different:
We permanently update the variables that can be factor uncertainty
We constantly project the possible results of the following 12 months
The investment is a fraction of the cost of a traditional market study, and we generate more accurate, continuous and updated results
Allows control over the sources of uncertainty, minimizing improvisation upon unexpected events